Coming in early June. Democrats Playing Defense: The 10 Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip in 2024 The 2024 election is still more than a year away, but Senate races across the country are already well underway. Democrats enter 2024 with a 51-49 seat majority, which means that if Republicans win the presidential election, one GOP pickup in the Senate flips the balance of power to Republicans. Democrats can only afford to lose one seat if they keep the presidency, and none if they lose it. Following the Republican party’s poor performance in the 2022 midterms, Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) replaced Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) as the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). While Daines has a plethora of targets, Republicans will be up against experienced Senators who are used to winning in red states. There are three factors that play a pivotal role in every race: President Biden’s approval and the national environment, how much sway the NRSC has in primaries, and the advantages of incumbency - positive name recognition, no primaries, experience winning, and early fundraising. Here are the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip: West Virginia (Incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin is a Democrat) West Virginia will likely remain at #1 on this list for the entire election cycle. Sen. Joe Manchin won here by 3.2 percentage points in 2018 and fell just short of 50% of the vote. 2024 is shaping up to be less favorable for Democrats than the 2018 blue wave year, and Manchin will likely face Governor Jim Justice, who won by more than 33% in 2020, in a state that former President Trump won by almost 40 points in 2020. These factors are leading Manchin to flirt with a bid for the White House, but if the moderate Democrat chooses to run for President, there is no Democrat in West Virginia that stands a chance at keeping that seat blue this year. How Manchin wins: Manchin has consistently been on the ballot in West Virginia since 2004 and has won every statewide office for which he has run. Add the trust and recognition among West Virginian voters to his tendency and fearlessness to oppose President Biden and congressional Democrats, and he could win another term by touting his moderateness and popularity in his state. And, if Rep. Alex Mooney upsets Justice in the Republican primary, Manchin’s chances of victory increase dramatically. How Manchin loses: Justice is a very popular Republican in a state that voted overwhelmingly for Trump twice. Increasing partisan polarization only helps his chances of victory, and Justice defeats Manchin in recent polls. West Virginia Republicans have the massive advantage of the GOP Presidential nominee winning by around 40 points, which helps them in the Senate race. Montana (Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is a Democrat) Unlike Manchin, Sen. Jon Tester has already begun his reelection campaign for the Senate seat he has held since he flipped it from red to blue in 2006. However, Tester may be fighting his toughest battle yet. Trump won Montana by 16 points in the 2020 election, and Sen. Daines defeated then-Governor Steve Bullock (D) to win reelection to the Senate by 10 points. Tester touts his farming and teaching background and his moderate record to appeal to Montana’s rural farmers, who usually vote for the GOP. Tester will likely face either Tim Sheehy - a businessman and former Navy SEAL - or Rep. Matt Rosendale - the hard-right congressman from western Montana who lost to Tester in 2018. While Rosendale has indicated that he would run, Sheehy has already announced his candidacy. National Republicans have made it abundantly clear that they think Sheehy will have a better chance of defeating Tester - Sheehy received endorsements from 11 Senators, including Daines and Sen. John Thune, the Minority Whip (second most powerful Republican, behind Sen. Mitch McConnell), Montana Governor Greg Gianforte, and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT). Despite Sheehy’s endorsements, Rosendale defeated Sheehy 64%-10% in the latest primary poll, with 26% of Montana Republicans undecided. However, Rosendale has not announced his candidacy yet, likely because Trump told the Congressman that he would not receive the ever-so-coveted Trump endorsement. Polling suggests that Rosendale could win the nomination without the Trump endorsement. Still, if Rosendale chooses not to run, Tester will have to defeat a more moderate but inexperienced Sheehy. How Tester wins: Tester defeated Rosendale in 2018 by 3.6 points, and a Rosendale rematch is possible. If Tester’s moderate appeal and Montana background can overcome increasing polarization and appeal to the Republican voters that will vote Republican everywhere else on the ballot, he may be on track for reelection. If Tester faces Sheehy, Tester will have the advantage of being known and trusted by Montana voters and has to build off that. How Tester loses: Like West Virginia, Montana consistently votes for Republicans by double digits. Republicans will likely win Montana in the presidential and governors race, which are huge potholes in Tester’s road to victory. If Rosendale can rally the same support that propelled him to Montana’s at-large House seat in 2020 and sufficiently tie Tester to Biden’s unpopularity in Montana, he has a good chance. If Sheehy wins the nomination, he will have to win the backing of Rosendale voters in the general election and build off of Republican victories in Montana in the Presidential, Governor, and House elections. Ohio (Incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown is a Democrat) Sen. Sherrod Brown is the last of the three Senate Democrats running for reelection in states that Trump won twice. Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2020, Sen. J. D. Vance won by 6.1 points in 2022, on the same ticket which Governor Mike DeWine (R) won reelection by a landslide 25 points. In 2018, DeWine won by less than 4 points, and Brown won by 6.8 points. These elections have solidified Ohio as a reliable Republican state. Ohio's Obama-era competitiveness has rapidly faded - every statewide elected official besides Brown is a Republican. Brown could face any of three Republicans: Bernie Moreno, Matt Dolan, or Frank LaRose. LaRose is Ohio’s Secretary of State, and Moreno and Dolan can self-fund their campaigns. Dolan placed third in the Republican primary in the 2022 Senate race, while Moreno dropped out and endorsed Vance. The Trump endorsement will likely have a significant role in who wins the primary, which all three candidates are chasing. Moreno already secured Vance’s endorsement, and LaRose prides himself on receiving Trump’s endorsement in the 2022 race for Secretary of State. Polling indicates that most Republican voters are undecided, but LaRose has performed best among the three candidates. Meanwhile, Brown is busy selling himself as a moderate Democrat who works across the aisle. Brown and Vance introduced the Rail Safety Act of 2024 after the Norfolk Southern train derailment in Ohio. Brown’s messaging centers on bringing jobs back to Ohio and working for workers. Based on the 2016 and 2020 elections, Brown will have to outperform Biden by 8 points. How Brown wins: Brown’s past three victories in this Senate election demonstrate that Ohio voters like and trust him. He outperformed DeWine’s Democratic opponent in 2018 by 7 points, polls well (so far), and is a strong fundraiser. If his bipartisan and pro-worker messaging continues to resonate with the Ohio electorate, Brown can outperform Biden and win reelection. How Brown loses: If the Republican nominee avoids controversy, does a good enough job of tying Brown to Biden, and builds off the Trump endorsement, Brown becomes more vulnerable than he already is. Moreover, if the Presidential ballot is a rematch of 2020, Brown may have difficulties distancing himself from Biden and convincing voters to split their ticket. Arizona (Sen. Kyrsten Simena is an Independent who caucuses with Democrats) Sen. Kyrsten Sinema will lose her seat this fall, but who replaces her is up for the taking. Rep. Ruben Gallego will most likely be the Democratic nominee, but the Republican primary could get very intense: Kari Lake, the 2022 GOP nominee for Governor, who lost by less than 1 point, has expressed interest in running for Senate and indicated that an announcement would come in the fall. Lake’s polarizing figure does not poll well against Gallego, but if Sinema runs as an Independent, the ensuing three-way race could see Gallego hampered by the spoiler effect. Moreover, Arizona is still a swing state - Biden only won by 0.31 points in a good year for Republicans. The GOP nominee could win over 50% of the vote, regardless of whether Sinema is in or out. Although Sinema has not announced her candidacy, Arizona is high on this list because of the potential for a swing state to have a three-way race. How Democrats (Gallego) win: Gallego has performed very well in recent polls, including polls of a three-way race. If Gallego can harness Arizona’s Democratic trend, continue to outraise Simena, and win moderate Democrat voters, he is in a good position to become Arizona’s next Senator. Of course, his chances of victory skyrocket if Sinema chooses not to run, as there will not be a spoiler effect to ruin his chances. Gallego will probably do better if Lake is the GOP nominee, but he should not bank on it. How Republicans win: If Republicans nominate a less polarizing candidate than Kari Lake, they will be in a great position to watch Sinema drag Gallego’s numbers down and emerge victorious in a three-way race. Nominating Lake may result in moderate Republicans backing Sinema, giving Gallego a better chance to win. If Sinema chooses not to run, Republicans must have a strong candidate and a good year to flip Arizona. Nevada (Incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen is a Democrat) In 2018, then-Rep. Jacky Rosen was one of two Democrats to flip a Senate seat, defeating incumbent Senator Dean Heller by 5 points. 2024 will be a close race - Rosen’s 2018 margin of victory is still the highest margin of victory in Nevada since 2014, and she had the benefit of the 2018 blue wave. Barring something shocking in the primary, Rosen will face one of two candidates in the general election: Jim Marchant or Sam Brown. Nevada’s Republican primary may bear a striking resemblance to Montana’s: an NRSC-picked conservative with less political experience challenging a more extreme candidate who has won statewide primaries but is more likely to lose the general election. Brown will have to win a primary, something he is yet to accomplish. Despite the backing of Washington’s Republicans, Marchant won a primary last year and is likely to win over the Trump wing of the party. If Jim Marchant’s name rings a bell, it is not just because he was the Republican nominee for Nevada’s Secretary of State in 2022 but also because he was directly involved in trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Marchant stated that, if elected, he would not certify a Biden victory in Nevada in 2024, and he repeated the false claim that Biden did not win Nevada in 2020. In 2022, Democrats made democracy a critical piece of campaign messaging, and Marchant was one of many election-denying Republican nominees for Secretary of State that lost in November. Democrat’s democracy message resonated with Nevada voters when nothing else did. Joe Lombardo said that Biden won Nevada and the 2020 election and proceeded to win the Governor’s race by 1.5 points, flipping the seat. However, election-denying candidates like Marchant and Adam Laxalt lost extremely close races. All three of those candidates are pro-life, so the most significant difference was what they thought of the 2020 election, and the election deniers lost. In 2018, Rosen defeated Heller by making Obamacare the central focus of her campaign. To counter that, Heller went on record saying that he would not vote to repeal Obamacare, citing the benefits of the law that were very popular in Nevada. However, when Senate Republicans forced a vote on a bill that repealed parts, but not all, of Obamacare, Heller voted for it. Rosen’s winning strategy was to take the popular side of a contentious and polarizing issue, and she can do that again in 2024. How Rosen wins: Rosen defeated Heller on a single issue and had most of Nevada’s voters on her side. 2024 is shaping up to be the same - but with election denial instead of health care. 2022 proved that Nevada voters would not elect election-denying Republicans, and 2024 polling supports this claim: in the only poll of this race, conducted in May, Rosen defeats Merchant by 5 points. If Brown is the nominee, he will have to navigate the difficulties of a general election, which he has never reached. How Rosen loses: Never count Republicans out in Nevada. If Brown wins the nomination and focuses his campaign on the economy, crime, and his military background, he has a strong chance of beating Rosen, especially if Nevada voters disapprove of Biden and Rosen (like Lombardo did in 2022). To counter his inexperience, Brown will have the guidance and backing of the NRSC and the top Republican strategists to defeat Rosen. So far, he has proven himself to be a strong fundraiser, which brings him one step closer to being the person to finally bring Republicans over the line in Nevada. Michigan (Incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow is a retiring Democrat) Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring, which opens up Michigan’s Senate seat. While Trump won Michigan in 2016, Democrats have fared quite well here in every election after that. Stabenow won by 6.5 points, and Gretchen Whitmer flipped the Governor election by 9.6 points in 2018. Sen. Gary Peters won by 1.7 in 2020, while Biden flipped Michigan blue by 2.8. Gov. Whitmer won reelection by 10.5 points in 2022, and Democrats won full control of the state government for the first time in 40 years. Although it is worth noting that the GOP nominee to take on Whitmer, Tudor Dixon, was polling in seventh place before the top five candidates were disqualified and the sixth was arrested. If Republicans had avoided the chaos, that race could have been closer. In 2022, voters also approved an amendment to the state Constitution to codify abortion access by 13.3 points. Michigan is shifting to the left, but its inherent nature as a swing state and an open race means that Republicans have a good chance at picking up a seat here. Rep. Elissa Slotkin is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, and Republicans hope that former Rep. Mike Rogers or New York Stock Exchange Vice Chair John Tuttle enters the race. Former Rep. Peter Meijer has expressed interest, but he is almost certain to lose the primary for his anti-Trump views. Despite 2022, Michigan is still a swing state, especially in a Presidential election year. While Slotkin enters the race as the favorite, Republicans can and likely will make this race competitive. How Democrats win: Slotkin will most certainly win the primary, and she is well-positioned to build off Michigan’s 2022 blue wave. Democrats did not lose in Michigan in 2022, and Slotkin’s spot in the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus will help her appeal to moderate Democrats, Independents, and moderate Republicans. Slotkin has proven to be a strong fundraiser, and has experience winning in Michigan. How Democrats lose: If Republicans nominate a moderate that can appeal to independent voters in the same way Slotkin does, they could win back the voters that kept previous Michigan elections competitive and even winning for the GOP. With the exception of the 2022 Governor election, Michigan elections have been close, and they will continue to be close. In the right environment, a candidate with strong crossover appeal and fundraising numbers can win this open seat. Wisconsin (Incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin is a Democrat) Sen. Tammy Baldwin is a progressive Democrat running for a third term in a swing state that just narrowly reelected Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in 2022. Baldwin is less familiar with close elections - she won by 5.5 points in 2012 and nearly 11 in 2018. Republicans have two main hurdles - finding their candidate and Baldwin’s tendency to win big. When Republican Reps. Mike Gallagher, Brien Steil, and Tom Tiffany declined to run for Senate, the lack of strong Republican candidates in Wisconsin became apparent. Baldwin raised more than $3.2 million in the second quarter and Republicans have no declared candidates. Of the three Republicans who have expressed interest, two of them - Eric Hodver and Scott Mayer - have no political experience and will be heavily reliant on self-funding their campaigns. The third, former Sheriff David Clarke, has much more unwanted baggage - his close ties to Trump and his views on abortion and conspiracy theories - that will probably push Independent voters toward Baldwin. All primary polling included Gallagher, but Clarke still had strong leads. Republicans will have to come back from Judge Janet Protasiewicz’s 11-point win over her Republican opponent in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election in April of 2023, but they are confident that a stronger nominee will overcome that gap more easily. How Baldwin wins: Baldwin is an excellent fundraiser with a strong connection with the Wisconsin electorate, evidenced by her 2012 and 2018 wins. Democrats will gladly watch a chaotic primary between relatively unknown and divisive candidates while fundraising and focusing on the general election (advantages of incumbency). Clarke’s rhetoric risks disinteresting Independents and some moderate Republicans, which increases Baldwin’s chances. How Baldwin loses: Wisconsin is a swing state - both Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 won by less than 1 point. Although Republicans face an uphill battle, Republicans just won a Senate race in Wisconsin, and Trump lost by less than a point in 2020. Catching up in fundraising will be a necessary step to rallying the voters that reelected Johnson in 2022. Although flipping Baldwin’s seat will be tougher than defending Johnson’s, Wisconsin Republicans know how to win, have won before, and are capable of picking up a swing state Senate seat. Pennsylvania (Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey is a Democrat) Sen. Bob Casey is running for a fourth term in 2024. Casey won his previous elections by 17.4 points in 2006, 9.1 in 2012, and 13.1 in 2018. Unseating Casey will be very difficult, and Republicans are coming off a 4.9 point loss to John Fetterman in 2022. Nominating Dr. Oz hurt Republicans in the general election, and they have turned to Dave McCormick, the runner-up in the 2022 Republican primary. McCormick came very close to defeating Trump-endorsed Oz and was widely regarded as more electable in the general election. However, there are some very important differences between Pennsylvania’s 2022 Senate election and its 2024 Senate election. First, McCormick and Oz were running for an open seat previously held by Republicans, as opposed to unseating a three-term Senator in Bob Casey. Second, Fetterman had never actually ran a statewide election before his Senate bid - he was on the ticket as Gov. Tom Wolf’s Lt. Gov, not running an independent race. Accordingly, Pennsylvania voters were less familiar with Fetterman than they are with Casey. Third, McCormick veered to the right in the primary to get the Trump endorsement. He has nothing to show for it, and this makes him less appealing to independents and moderate Democrats in 2024. McCormick does have important factors in his favor - he has already secured Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s endorsement, and Doug Mastriano is not running - Mastriano, the 2022 Republican nominee for Governor, beat McCormick in primary polls, despite his decisive loss at the hands of now-Gov. Josh Shapiro in 2022. How Casey wins: Casey won his previous three elections by an average of 13.2 points. In 2006 and 2018, Casey ran in a midterm with a Republican president, but in 2012 he was on the same ticket as President Barack Obama and outran him by 3.7 points. Casey is an exceptionally strong candidate, raised $4 million(!) in the last quarter, and defeated McCormick by 12 points in the latest poll between the two, with 53% of the respondents saying they would vote to reelect Casey. The last time Casey was on the ballot in a Presidential election, he outran Obama by 3.7. If he outruns Biden by just 3 points, McCormick will have to outrun the Republican nominee (presumably Trump) by the same amount, which will not be easy. How Casey loses: McCormick was much more electable than Dr. Oz and was perceived as more moderate. If McCormick can use that perception to attract swing voters without isolating the Trump base, which he can do, he has a chance of winning. McCormick is wealthy and can self-fund his campaign, but he also needs lots of individual small donors to demonstrate that he has the base in Pennsylvania to win. McCormick and Republicans should make the race competitive, and if Republicans play their cards right, get a good national environment, and a stroke of luck, Casey might not win a fourth term. Texas (Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz is a Republican) In 2018, then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke came 2.3 points away from shocking the country and flipping Texas blue. O’Rourke visited every single one of Texas’s 254 counties, had the benefit of the blue wave, and raised $80 million, but could not overcome the partisan lean of Texas and Sen. Ted Cruz. In 2024, Democrat Rep. Colin Allred aims to pick up where O’Rourke left off and defeat Cruz. Allred polls 5-7 points behind Cruz, but national Democrats will pour loads of money into his campaign (they tend not to like Ted Cruz). Since 2018, Texas has trended back to the right. In 2020, Trump won by 5.6 points and Sen. John Cornyn won by 9.6 points. In 2022, Gov. Greg Abbott won reelection by nearly 11 points. Allred faces some primary challengers, most notably State Sen. Roland Gutierrez from Ulvalde, but Allred polls ahead of him. Gutierrez and Allred will (should) likely keep their focus on Cruz, not each other. How Cruz wins: In 2018, O’Rourke threw everything at this race and had the right national environment but was still unable to overcome the partisan lean of Texas. 2024 is not shaping up to be the blue wave year that 2018 was, which plays to Cruz’s advantage. Even though Texas is closer than it has been in previous elections, Texas is still a red state, and this is Cruz’s race to lose. How Cruz loses: National Democrats will pour money into Allred’s campaign, and he only needs to do marginally better than O’Rourke across the board. Allred will have to do everything O’Rourke did and more, but in the right environment, this race could become very competitive. Democrats will be motivated to pick up a seat and defeat Cruz. Florida (Incumbent Sen. Rick Scott is a Republican) In 2018, then-Governor Rick Scott flipped this seat by the razor-thin margin of 0.12 points - the closest Senate election since 2008 (Minnesota’s 2008 Senate election was decided by 0.011 points, which was 312 votes). Since becoming a Senator, Scott chaired the NRSC in 2022, overseeing a Republican effort that wound up in losing one seat, becoming the first time since the 2002 midterms that the President’s party gained seats in the Senate. Following the election, Scott mounted an unsuccessful bid to be the Senate minority leader and was the subject of heavy criticism for suggesting that Social Security and Medicare should sunset every five years. While these opinions are generally unpopular, Florida has leaned further to the right in recent years, culminating in the 2022 midterms, when Gov. Ron DeSantis won by 19.4 points and Sen. Marco Rubio won by 16.4 points. Florida’s recent turn from the center to the right is leaving Democrats empty-handed - Republicans control the Governorship, both Senate seats, every single statewide office, and supermajorities in the state legislature. As a result, Democrats are scrambling to find a candidate with winning chances. How Scott wins: This is not the state that Scott won in 2010, 2014, or 2018. Florida’s rapid shift from a swing state to a red state will help Scott’s reelection bid. Even though his victories are often by thin margins, he is no stranger to winning Florida elections. Democrats do not have their candidate and are frantically trying to push back against the power of Florida Republicans. As of now, they do not have enough to take down Scott. Scott has a fundraising advantage, polling advantage, incumbency advantage, and partisan advantage. Countering all of those factors will be very difficult for Democrats. How Scott loses: In all three of Scott’s elections, he has never won by more than 1.2 points. In 2010, Rubio won the Senate election by 19.2 points, while Scott won the corresponding election for Governor by only 1.1 points, so Scott has a history of underperforming other Republicans. Despite Florida’s Republican lean, Scott’s unpopular policy proposals received bipartisan backlash. If Democrats find a candidate that can corral the anti-Scott voters in previous elections, put Scott’s incredibly unpopular policy proposals in the limelight, and raise a lot of money, a good year for Democrats might yield a return to winning ways in the Sunshine State.

Every year has elections! Here's a quick overview of the most important elections in 2023, who's running, where they are, and why they matter. Come of them have already happened! Coming in fall 2023.

Why and How the GOP threw away an easy pickup, and what this means for Arizona politics moving forward. Coming in early June.

The 2024 election is quickly approaching, and a flurry of Republican candidates are throwing their hats in the ring for the chance to run against Joe Biden. Here’s who’s most likely to win the GOP nomination and why. Here's the RealClearPolitics polling average for the 2024 GOP primary. (Photo credit: Boston Globe) 10. Vivek Ramaswamy (tech entrepreneur, no political experience) Forbes says his net worth is $630 million. Will he win? No. Why is he not dead last in the polls? Because he announced early and has plenty of money. Why is he running? Fame, a platform, because he can. 9. Asa Hutchinson (former Governor of Arkansas, among many other things) Hutchinson opened his campaign by saying that Trump should step away from the campaign trail due to his legal troubles. Hutchinson has been in politics and elections since 1982 and is a product of the Reagan and Bush eras. An extremely traditional, old-school Republican that the current GOP has pushed to the side. The Arkansas Times describes him as “about as exciting as dry iceberg lettuce,” which is the polar opposite of Trump and DeSantis. Hutchinson would be relying on voters who are frustrated with the direction of the GOP and want a calmer candidate. The path for him to win would be to be the head of the anti-Trump coalition and take on the former President alone. Unfortunately for him, there’s no shortage of candidates vying for that same spot, and the longer they stay in the race, the less of a chance Hutchinson has. The Arkansas Times piece (linked again here) explains this much better than I do (with data!), so give it a read if you’re interested. 8. Doug Burgum (Governor of North Dakota) Money talks. Doug Burgum is a businessman who befriended Steve Ballmer at Stanford and would sell a company to Microsoft for over a $1 billion, founded an investment firm and venture capital companies, and sits on multiple boards. Burgum decided he wanted to be the Governor of North Dakota in 2016. Due to having no prior political experience, the North Dakota GOP endorsed a different candidate, but Burgum won the primary and the next two general elections anyways (you don’t need a Washington insider to tell you that it helps when you’re worth 1.1 billion). Burgum is this high on the list because of his money, not his policies. He’s pro-fossil fuels and pro-energy, supports tax cuts, and signed anti-transgender and anti-abortion laws in North Dakota. 7. Glenn Youngkin (Governor of Virginia) Youngkin became the Governor of Virginia by taking advantage of President Biden’s extreme unpopularity and quietly accepting the Trump endorsement while distancing himself from Trump to appear more moderate. Although he previously said he would not be running, that promise is next to meaningless in politics (back me up on this, Nikki Haley). In addition to his $400+ million net worth, his PAC has been quietly raising lots of money, and he is ineligible to run for re-election in 2025 (Virginia rules). He could be gearing up to return to Richmond in 2029, or he could run for Senate if he doesn’t run for President. However, his money, status, and platform set him up for a presidential run. Youngkin is term-limited as the Governor of Virginia and can toe the line between presenting himself as a moderate Republican and holding the Trump base. He’s the only Republican to win any big race with that appeal since 2020, and he did it in a Biden +13 state. His campaign should have been the model for Republican candidates in 2022. However, to ensure Youngkin’s nomination in 2021, the Virginia GOP changed the nomination process from a primary to a convention, which prevented Amanda Chase, the Trump-endorsed candidate, from winning the nomination. That will not happen in the presidential race, and Youngkin will have to defeat Trump in a primary, something he has never done. 6. Chris Sununu (Governor of New Hampshire) In 2022, Sununu opted not to run for Maggie Hassan's Senate seat and was reelected as Governor of New Hampshire. Sununu first won this seat in a super close 2016 race and won in 2022 by 16 points on the same ballot that Hassan, a Democrat, won by 10. The crossover appeal is distinct to Sununu and would make him a strong candidate. Sununu will decide if he runs in the next few weeks. While his decision to not run for Senate allows him to be the longstanding Governor of New Hampshire as opposed to the state’s freshman junior Senator, Sununu cited not wanting to take divisive stances on national issues as a reason for not running for Senate and he’ll have to overcome that to run for President. If he runs, he’ll have powerful appeal in New Hampshire, a swing state with the first GOP primary, and he’ll project himself as a moderate with heavy crossover appeal. Sununu’s path to the nomination is unique because he would not clash with Trump as much as he would try to come across as a candidate much more likely to win the general election in November. That strategy looks unlikely to work, but with the right candidate (Sununu), it appeals to a portion of the Republican electorate in ways that Trump and DeSantis don’t. Sununu does an exceptional job at getting many Democrats to vote for him, which he would have to make a central campaign focus. He’s very similar to Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker, both former Republican governors in very blue states. However, Baker’s decision not to run for reelection after his primary opponent received a Trump endorsement shows how difficult it would be for Sununu to overcome the nature of this field and the current alignment of the GOP. His policy stances will most likely hold him back in this field, but they would benefit him greatly if he made the general election. Sununu is slightly above Youngkin because of his electoral experience and his popularity in New Hampshire, the first state to hold their primary. 5. Mike Pence (former Vice President) This should be relatively obvious. Pence wrote a book and has been gearing up to embody MAGA - without election denial - since January 6th. He faces an extremely uphill battle because he will likely have to convince the people who chanted “hang Mike Pence” to vote for him while surviving attacks from Trump and other Republicans pushing the Big Lie. Pence carries some water as the former VP, but winning the nomination will be difficult. It would take a lot of endorsements and fundraising, but it is not impossible. 4. Tim Scott (Senator from South Carolina) The only Senator on this list, Scott is number three because I think Haley will accept a VP role before Scott. Haley and Scott have a long-lasting relationship and a lot of similarities. Haley appointed Scott to the Senate when she was the Governor of South Carolina in 2013. Since then, Scott has been the only Black Republican Senator, and Haley was the first female governor of Asian-American descent. Both have compelling personal stories, and both are great communicators. Scott outran Governor Henry McMaster by 5 points in the 2022 Senate election, showing his electability. Scott has also secured Senator John Thune’s coveted endorsement. Thune is the second highest-ranking GOP Senator (behind Mitch McConnell), and his endorsement carries more weight than it may appear to - although it may not mean much to ordinary voters, Thune's support can lead to support from other high-ranking GOP members. He shares Haley’s messages that America is not a racist country, which is popular among the GOP base. Scott is also vocal on confronting racism, which he insists is not systemic, and he is not afraid to break with Trump or other GOP leaders. He killed two of Trump’s judicial nominees due to their support for anti-black legislation and movements. Scott is still very conservative, voted to certify the 2020 election, and is an excellent fundraiser, which could allow him to harness the parts of Trump’s policies that remain popular among the GOP while also alienating himself from much of the backlash. 3. Nikki Haley (former Governor of South Carolina, former US ambassador to the UN) Nikki Haley is currently in third place on the RCP polling average with 4.4% of the electorate, 18 points behind DeSantis and 49 behind Trump. She has a strong personal appeal to voters, attacked Trump and Biden’s age, recently criticized the indictment, and broke with Trump on January 6th, all of which bodes well for her campaign. Haley has cast herself as a Washington outsider with foreign policy expertise, a message that usually resonates with Republican voters. She has shied away from confronting Trump on policy issues, and there’s no shortage of candidates who share her stance. Like most politicians, Haley switched her perspective on plenty of positions for political gain throughout her career - expect to see more of that in the primary. To avoid the wrath of Trump, she has flipped positions on important issues at the start of her campaign, which won’t help her win the nomination. Haley, among many others on this list, is a front-runner for the Vice Presidential nomination and will likely launch a future Presidential campaign in a later cycle. Time is on her side, and she’s a smart, well-versed politician with experience in office and experience winning elections. Expect to hear her name in future cycles, but I don’t expect her to be at the top of the GOP ticket. Haley is in third (for now) on this list because her early announcement has given her a head start in fundraising and polling, which could prove extremely beneficial in Iowa. 2. Ron DeSantis (Governor of Florida) Similar to how Trump is the clear top choice, DeSantis is clearly in second place. Despite a crushing win in the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, DeSantis has never led any poll and has been a clear runner-up to Trump. Although he endured a sloppy campaign launch, DeSantis has gone on a book tour, including stops in Iowa and New Hampshire, maintains a lot of money (at least $86 million), and has projected himself as MAGA without the mess of Trump. He’s also 44 years old, which gives him a sharp point of difference between himself and both Trump and Biden and allows him to be the “fresh face” Republicans desire. However, his decision to postpone his announcement until after the Florida legislative session was necessary but damaging (during the session, Florida enacted a law that allowed DeSantis to run for President without resigning as Governor). Trump used the extra time to attack DeSantis, who has gotten into a fight with Disney that he seemingly cannot win. He also received backlash from his own party for calling Russia’s war in Ukraine a “territorial dispute.” This, and his sloppy Twitter Spaces campaign launch, indicate that DeSantis was not as prepared for this race as we expected. DeSantis has championed himself on being socially conservative. DeSantis knows that he would not be Florida’s Governor without Trump’s endorsement in 2018, and he needs to be able to withstand the attacks and counter them with his own, which he has begun to do. DeSantis does not enter the race as the favorite, but he is the most likely to steal the nomination from Trump. DeSantis is also the only opponent Trump sees as a threat, evidenced by the nicknames and attacks. He needs the race to (quickly) boil down to a head-to-head matchup with the former President if he wants to maximize his chances of winning. 1. Donald Trump (former President) The former President still has a crushing grip on his party. Trump has led in every recent GOP primary poll, leading the latest RCP average by 30.8, and has used his head start as the first candidate in the race to rack up endorsements from high-ranking US officials. The 2022 midterms also showed his grip on the party’s base. Trump-endorsed candidates won the GOP nominations for their respective races almost every time, regardless of their political experience (think Dr. Oz and Blake Masters) or their chances in the general election (Doug Mastriano, Kari Lake). Despite the (many) losses, Trump’s endorsement sent candidates like Ted Budd and JD Vance through their red-state primaries and to the Senate, both of whom have already endorsed Trump for 2024. Trump’s dominance in the primaries demonstrates his power over the party, and he enters the running as the favorite for the nomination. To win the nomination, a candidate must take on and defeat Trump, and almost everyone here has shown reluctance. Could he lose? It’s not impossible, but for now, this is his race to lose. One thing that could take him down is the legal troubles he finds himself in, but his first arraignment has not had that effect on his poll numbers. Also, Trump benefits from a crowded field, which will split the anti-Trump vote, and he is likely going to get that. Who missed the top 10 (in no particular order) Chris Christie (former Governor of New Jersey) Christie may be the most influential candidate and the most fun to watch. Although he won't win - Christie finished 6th in New Hampshire in 2016 - if he raises enough money and gets enough time, he will most likely launch a plethora of attacks on Trump and DeSantis. Christie is often credited with irreparably damaging Senator Marco Rubio's chances in 2016, and he may still have the ability to actually inflict damage among the GOP front runners. Greg Abbott (Governor of Texas) Abbott didn’t make my first list because he hasn’t announced anything, and he hasn’t been touring Iowa or seemingly gearing up for a Presidential run. If he were to run, I would probably put him in eighth - above Burgnum and behind Youngkin. The candidates on my list (except Sununu) have either already announced their candidacies or are highly likely to, while Abbott hasn’t demonstrated that interest yet. Kristi Noem (Governor of South Dakota) Noem can’t run against Trump. She’s an embodiment of his policies on the state level. If she runs, expect her to drop out and endorse the eventual nominee, with the long-shot hope of being the vice presidential nominee. Kevin McCarthy (Speaker of the House) McCarthy has been waiting to be Speaker of the House for more than a decade and will not give that up to run against Trump, who was instrumental in winning McCarthy the speakership. McCarthy has a long career set up for him in Congress, and Republicans need him to keep his spot. Liz Cheney (former Rep. from Wyoming) Liz Cheney can’t win, and everybody knows it. If she couldn’t come close in her Wyoming GOP primary as a high-ranking House Republican, she has zero chance of winning the nomination.