My 2022 Senate Predictions

I predict a 50-50 senate after this year's midterms, with Democrats picking up Pennsylvania but losing Nevada.

How I characterize each race:

"Solid" states are definitely Dem or Rep by 15 or more percentage points (like CA or KY)
"Likely" states are decided by 5 to 15 points (like CO or FL)
"Lean" states are decided by 1 to 5 points (like AZ or WI)
"Tilt" states are decided by less than 1 point (like PA)
NV is mistakenly labeled as Lean R, it should be Tilt R

See the full map

The Senate will remain 50-50, meaning Democrats retain their majority

Safe Republican Seats

Alabama (Open)

Alaska (Murkowski)

Arkansas (Boozman)

Louisiana (Kennedy)

Idaho (Crapo)

Indiana (Young)

Kansas (Moran)

Kentucky (Paul)

Missouri (Open)

North Dakota (Hoeven)

Oklahoma (Lankford)

Oklahoma-Special (Open)

South Carolina (Scott)

South Dakota (Thune)

Utah (Lee)

Likely Republican Seats

North Carolina (Open)

Ohio (Open)

Florida (Rubio)

Iowa (Grassley)

Lean Republican Seat

Wisconsin (Johnson)

Tilt Republican Seat

Nevada (Cortez Masto)*

Safe Democrat Seats

California (Padilla)

Connecticut (Blumenthal)

Hawaii (Schatz)

Illinois (Duckworth)

Maryland (van Hollen)

New York (Schumer)

Oregon (Wyden)

Vermont (Open)

Likely Democrat Seats

Washington (Murray)

Colorado (Bennet)

Lean Democrat Seats

Arizona (Kelly)

New Hampshire (Hassan)

Tilt Democrat Seats

Pennsylvania* (Open)

Georgia** (Warnock)

A Quick Explanation of each Not-Safe State

Arizona - Lean D

Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is really strong, and Blake Masters (R) was an unknown, inexperienced, and underfunded candidate. Kelly's popularity, incumbency, and high fundraising numbers should propel him to victory. I think his margin of victory will be somewhere between 1-4%, which would be around his 2020 margin.

Colorado - Likely D

Incumbent Michael Bennet is well on track to win reelection. Colorado voted for Biden by 13 points in 2020, and is a Democrat-leaning state. Notably, Joe O'Dea, the Republican, has run a campaign distanced from national Republicans - he supports gay marriage and is pro-choice. However, Colorado is too partisan to flip, and will most certainly be a 7-13 point win for Bennet.

Florida - Likely R

Marco Rubio is extremely popular and has consistently been able to outperform other Republicans on the same ballot. Add that to the fact that the generic ballot favors republicans and the sitting Democratic president has a -10 net approval, and it's almost impossible for Rubio to lose. Val Demings is a great candidate, but 2022 is not her year, a theme you'll see with many Democrats in red-leaning states. Rubio should win by 7-12 points statewide.

Georgia** - Tilt D

Since there's a Libertarian candidate, neither candidate will reach a majority on Tuesday. Although Herschel Walker will be helped by Gov. Brian Kemp, polls don't show either candidate consistently above 50% on election day, so this race goes to a runoff election on December 6th. I think Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) will win reelection in the runoff with the Senate on the line. If this race goes to December, my prediction may change.

Iowa - Likely R

Chuck Grassley has been in this office since 1980, but he is still popular in a state that went to Trump by 8 points in 2020, and Grassley will most certainly improve on that. Iowa is likely and not safe because polling hasn't shown Grassley ahead by 15+, but expect him to win by 9-15 points. Just because a race isn't safe doesn't mean that it has a serious chance of flipping, and Iowa is a prime example of that.

North Carolina - Likely R

Democrats always have an uphill battle in NC, and this year it's evn worse. Although Cheri Beasley is a strong candidate, this was always the GOP's race to lose, and they choose the right nominee in Ted Budd. He'll be able to harness the national environment and easily ride it to victory. This state went to Trump in 2020 by 1.3, but I expect Budd to win by slightly over 5 points. I wouldn't be surprised if his margin is between 4-6.5 points statewide.

New Hampshire - Lean D

New Hampshire could have been the easiest flip of this cycle, if only Republicans got current Governor Chris Sununu or even former Senator Kelly Ayotte to run. Sununu won his gubernatorial election by 31.7 points last year. He would've won easily, but he choose to run for reelection instead. Republicans have Don Bolduc, who did not receive sustained national support, and I think he will fall short of defeating Hassan. Polls have shown the race narrowing, and New Hampshire is still an inherently competitive swing state, with a Republican governor on track to easily win reelection. I expect Hassan to win by 1-4 points. She currently leads by 1.4 on RealClearPolitics.

Nevada - Tilt R

Nevada is a competitive state prone to a typical midterm year. Adam Laxalt (R) is a good candidate for the GOP, one who's won statewide races before. Even better for Laxalt, his grandfather, Paul Laxalt, is a former Governor of Nevada, so he has name recognition. Although Nevada polling historically underestimated Democrats, they've lost substantial ground with White and Latino voters this year in ways they haven't before. Those voters elected Democrats in years past. Democrats are supported by Nevada mailing a ballot to every voter and accepting late ballots if they are postmarked by election day, and mail-in ballots favor democrats. I believe I could have justified a prediction from Lean D - Lean R, I settled on Tilt R because I expect polling to be slightly more accurate, and Laxalt is a strong nominees. I expect Laxalt to win by less than 3 points, but wouldn't be stunned if Cortez Masto narrowly wins.

Ohio - Likely R

Ohio and North Carolina follow a very similar story. Republicans made the best primary choice, and although Tim Ryan has run a great campaign, JD Vance won't lose Ohio, which went to Trump by 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. In 2018, maybe, but not in 2022. Vance will also be helped by Mike DeWine's numbers in the gubernatorial race, which will give down-ballot Republicans an extra bump. Notably, although Ryan will likely lose, he pressured the GOP into pouring tens of millions of dollars into this race, money which could've been used elsewhere, but needed to be unplanned insurance in Ohio. If Democrats have a successful showing nationwide, Tim Ryan will have played a large but silent role. I think Vance will win by 6-10 points.

Pennsylvania - Tilt D

Any Republican but Dr. Oz (Dave McCormick, Kathy Barnette, Pat Toomey) and this is a lean red state. Oz's overall unelectability leads swing voters to pick between the lesser of two evils, and I think Fetterman's name recognition from winning statewide races and incumbency as a Lt. Gov. will push him across the line. Polling suggests momentum is in Oz's favor, but Like Vance in Ohio, Fetterman will be helped out by Josh Shapiro's numbers in the governor's race, as Shapiro will likely give down-ballot Democrats some help. I think the debate was awful for Fetterman, but while it's much closer, I predict a narrow Fetterman win. I would not be surprised if Oz wins by 2 or less, or if Fetterman wins 2 or less as well.

Washington - Likely D

The only real reason Washington is not safe blue is because Republicans threw tons of money into this race for reasons I do not understand, and Democrats knew they should not respond because they need their money elsewhere. Due to its heavy partisan lean, Washington was never in play for the GOP, and they should've known that before putting money into Washington that should've gone to more winnable states. I expect Patty Murray to win by 10-15, but I wouldn't be surprised if the margin is higher. The margin of victory for Murray will tell us more about how effective the Republican money was in flipping some voters; it will not accurately represent the national environment for Republicans.

Wisconsin - Lean R

In this national environment, especially in a state that barely went to Biden, and is more prone to a wave, incumbent Ron Johnson will withstand the challenge from Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Barnes is a good candidate, but this isn't his year. However, like Ryan, Barnes will have forced the GOP to spend more than they would've wanted to in Wisconsin, trading off with other races across the country. I expect Johnson to win by 2-5 points.