Who's most likely to be the 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee?

The 2024 election is quickly approaching, and a flurry of Republican candidates are throwing their hats in the ring for the chance to run against Joe Biden. Here’s who’s most likely to win the GOP nomination and why. Here's the RealClearPolitics polling average for the 2024 GOP primary. (Photo credit: Boston Globe)

10. Vivek Ramaswamy (tech entrepreneur, no political experience)

Forbes says his net worth is $630 million. Will he win? No. Why is he not dead last in the polls? Because he announced early and has plenty of money. Why is he running? Fame, a platform, because he can.

9. Asa Hutchinson (former Governor of Arkansas, among many other things)

Hutchinson opened his campaign by saying that Trump should step away from the campaign trail due to his legal troubles. Hutchinson has been in politics and elections since 1982 and is a product of the Reagan and Bush eras. An extremely traditional, old-school Republican that the current GOP has pushed to the side. The Arkansas Times describes him as “about as exciting as dry iceberg lettuce,” which is the polar opposite of Trump and DeSantis. Hutchinson would be relying on voters who are frustrated with the direction of the GOP and want a calmer candidate. The path for him to win would be to be the head of the anti-Trump coalition and take on the former President alone. Unfortunately for him, there’s no shortage of candidates vying for that same spot, and the longer they stay in the race, the less of a chance Hutchinson has. The Arkansas Times piece (linked again here) explains this much better than I do (with data!), so give it a read if you’re interested.

8. Doug Burgum (Governor of North Dakota)

Money talks. Doug Burgum is a businessman who befriended Steve Ballmer at Stanford and would sell a company to Microsoft for over a $1 billion, founded an investment firm and venture capital companies, and sits on multiple boards. Burgum decided he wanted to be the Governor of North Dakota in 2016. Due to having no prior political experience, the North Dakota GOP endorsed a different candidate, but Burgum won the primary and the next two general elections anyways (you don’t need a Washington insider to tell you that it helps when you’re worth 1.1 billion). Burgum is this high on the list because of his money, not his policies. He’s pro-fossil fuels and pro-energy, supports tax cuts, and signed anti-transgender and anti-abortion laws in North Dakota.

7. Glenn Youngkin (Governor of Virginia)

Youngkin became the Governor of Virginia by taking advantage of President Biden’s extreme unpopularity and quietly accepting the Trump endorsement while distancing himself from Trump to appear more moderate. Although he previously said he would not be running, that promise is next to meaningless in politics (back me up on this, Nikki Haley). In addition to his $400+ million net worth, his PAC has been quietly raising lots of money, and he is ineligible to run for re-election in 2025 (Virginia rules). He could be gearing up to return to Richmond in 2029, or he could run for Senate if he doesn’t run for President. However, his money, status, and platform set him up for a presidential run. Youngkin is term-limited as the Governor of Virginia and can toe the line between presenting himself as a moderate Republican and holding the Trump base. He’s the only Republican to win any big race with that appeal since 2020, and he did it in a Biden +13 state. His campaign should have been the model for Republican candidates in 2022. However, to ensure Youngkin’s nomination in 2021, the Virginia GOP changed the nomination process from a primary to a convention, which prevented Amanda Chase, the Trump-endorsed candidate, from winning the nomination. That will not happen in the presidential race, and Youngkin will have to defeat Trump in a primary, something he has never done.

6. Chris Sununu (Governor of New Hampshire)

In 2022, Sununu opted not to run for Maggie Hassan's Senate seat and was reelected as Governor of New Hampshire. Sununu first won this seat in a super close 2016 race and won in 2022 by 16 points on the same ballot that Hassan, a Democrat, won by 10. The crossover appeal is distinct to Sununu and would make him a strong candidate. Sununu will decide if he runs in the next few weeks. While his decision to not run for Senate allows him to be the longstanding Governor of New Hampshire as opposed to the state’s freshman junior Senator, Sununu cited not wanting to take divisive stances on national issues as a reason for not running for Senate and he’ll have to overcome that to run for President. If he runs, he’ll have powerful appeal in New Hampshire, a swing state with the first GOP primary, and he’ll project himself as a moderate with heavy crossover appeal. Sununu’s path to the nomination is unique because he would not clash with Trump as much as he would try to come across as a candidate much more likely to win the general election in November. That strategy looks unlikely to work, but with the right candidate (Sununu), it appeals to a portion of the Republican electorate in ways that Trump and DeSantis don’t. Sununu does an exceptional job at getting many Democrats to vote for him, which he would have to make a central campaign focus. He’s very similar to Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker, both former Republican governors in very blue states. However, Baker’s decision not to run for reelection after his primary opponent received a Trump endorsement shows how difficult it would be for Sununu to overcome the nature of this field and the current alignment of the GOP. His policy stances will most likely hold him back in this field, but they would benefit him greatly if he made the general election. Sununu is slightly above Youngkin because of his electoral experience and his popularity in New Hampshire, the first state to hold their primary.

5. Mike Pence (former Vice President)

This should be relatively obvious. Pence wrote a book and has been gearing up to embody MAGA - without election denial - since January 6th. He faces an extremely uphill battle because he will likely have to convince the people who chanted “hang Mike Pence” to vote for him while surviving attacks from Trump and other Republicans pushing the Big Lie. Pence carries some water as the former VP, but winning the nomination will be difficult. It would take a lot of endorsements and fundraising, but it is not impossible.

4. Tim Scott (Senator from South Carolina)

The only Senator on this list, Scott is number three because I think Haley will accept a VP role before Scott. Haley and Scott have a long-lasting relationship and a lot of similarities. Haley appointed Scott to the Senate when she was the Governor of South Carolina in 2013. Since then, Scott has been the only Black Republican Senator, and Haley was the first female governor of Asian-American descent. Both have compelling personal stories, and both are great communicators. Scott outran Governor Henry McMaster by 5 points in the 2022 Senate election, showing his electability. Scott has also secured Senator John Thune’s coveted endorsement. Thune is the second highest-ranking GOP Senator (behind Mitch McConnell), and his endorsement carries more weight than it may appear to - although it may not mean much to ordinary voters, Thune's support can lead to support from other high-ranking GOP members. He shares Haley’s messages that America is not a racist country, which is popular among the GOP base. Scott is also vocal on confronting racism, which he insists is not systemic, and he is not afraid to break with Trump or other GOP leaders. He killed two of Trump’s judicial nominees due to their support for anti-black legislation and movements. Scott is still very conservative, voted to certify the 2020 election, and is an excellent fundraiser, which could allow him to harness the parts of Trump’s policies that remain popular among the GOP while also alienating himself from much of the backlash.

3. Nikki Haley (former Governor of South Carolina, former US ambassador to the UN)

Nikki Haley is currently in third place on the RCP polling average with 4.4% of the electorate, 18 points behind DeSantis and 49 behind Trump. She has a strong personal appeal to voters, attacked Trump and Biden’s age, recently criticized the indictment, and broke with Trump on January 6th, all of which bodes well for her campaign. Haley has cast herself as a Washington outsider with foreign policy expertise, a message that usually resonates with Republican voters. She has shied away from confronting Trump on policy issues, and there’s no shortage of candidates who share her stance. Like most politicians, Haley switched her perspective on plenty of positions for political gain throughout her career - expect to see more of that in the primary. To avoid the wrath of Trump, she has flipped positions on important issues at the start of her campaign, which won’t help her win the nomination. Haley, among many others on this list, is a front-runner for the Vice Presidential nomination and will likely launch a future Presidential campaign in a later cycle. Time is on her side, and she’s a smart, well-versed politician with experience in office and experience winning elections. Expect to hear her name in future cycles, but I don’t expect her to be at the top of the GOP ticket. Haley is in third (for now) on this list because her early announcement has given her a head start in fundraising and polling, which could prove extremely beneficial in Iowa.

2. Ron DeSantis (Governor of Florida)

Similar to how Trump is the clear top choice, DeSantis is clearly in second place. Despite a crushing win in the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, DeSantis has never led any poll and has been a clear runner-up to Trump. Although he endured a sloppy campaign launch, DeSantis has gone on a book tour, including stops in Iowa and New Hampshire, maintains a lot of money (at least $86 million), and has projected himself as MAGA without the mess of Trump. He’s also 44 years old, which gives him a sharp point of difference between himself and both Trump and Biden and allows him to be the “fresh face” Republicans desire. However, his decision to postpone his announcement until after the Florida legislative session was necessary but damaging (during the session, Florida enacted a law that allowed DeSantis to run for President without resigning as Governor). Trump used the extra time to attack DeSantis, who has gotten into a fight with Disney that he seemingly cannot win. He also received backlash from his own party for calling Russia’s war in Ukraine a “territorial dispute.” This, and his sloppy Twitter Spaces campaign launch, indicate that DeSantis was not as prepared for this race as we expected. DeSantis has championed himself on being socially conservative. DeSantis knows that he would not be Florida’s Governor without Trump’s endorsement in 2018, and he needs to be able to withstand the attacks and counter them with his own, which he has begun to do. DeSantis does not enter the race as the favorite, but he is the most likely to steal the nomination from Trump. DeSantis is also the only opponent Trump sees as a threat, evidenced by the nicknames and attacks. He needs the race to (quickly) boil down to a head-to-head matchup with the former President if he wants to maximize his chances of winning.

1. Donald Trump (former President)

The former President still has a crushing grip on his party. Trump has led in every recent GOP primary poll, leading the latest RCP average by 30.8, and has used his head start as the first candidate in the race to rack up endorsements from high-ranking US officials. The 2022 midterms also showed his grip on the party’s base. Trump-endorsed candidates won the GOP nominations for their respective races almost every time, regardless of their political experience (think Dr. Oz and Blake Masters) or their chances in the general election (Doug Mastriano, Kari Lake). Despite the (many) losses, Trump’s endorsement sent candidates like Ted Budd and JD Vance through their red-state primaries and to the Senate, both of whom have already endorsed Trump for 2024. Trump’s dominance in the primaries demonstrates his power over the party, and he enters the running as the favorite for the nomination. To win the nomination, a candidate must take on and defeat Trump, and almost everyone here has shown reluctance. Could he lose? It’s not impossible, but for now, this is his race to lose. One thing that could take him down is the legal troubles he finds himself in, but his first arraignment has not had that effect on his poll numbers. Also, Trump benefits from a crowded field, which will split the anti-Trump vote, and he is likely going to get that.

Who missed the top 10 (in no particular order)

• Chris Christie (former Governor of New Jersey)

Christie may be the most influential candidate and the most fun to watch. Although he won't win - Christie finished 6th in New Hampshire in 2016 - if he raises enough money and gets enough time, he will most likely launch a plethora of attacks on Trump and DeSantis. Christie is often credited with irreparably damaging Senator Marco Rubio's chances in 2016, and he may still have the ability to actually inflict damage among the GOP front runners.

• Greg Abbott (Governor of Texas)

Abbott didn’t make my first list because he hasn’t announced anything, and he hasn’t been touring Iowa or seemingly gearing up for a Presidential run. If he were to run, I would probably put him in eighth - above Burgnum and behind Youngkin. The candidates on my list (except Sununu) have either already announced their candidacies or are highly likely to, while Abbott hasn’t demonstrated that interest yet.

• Kristi Noem (Governor of South Dakota)

Noem can’t run against Trump. She’s an embodiment of his policies on the state level. If she runs, expect her to drop out and endorse the eventual nominee, with the long-shot hope of being the vice presidential nominee.

• Kevin McCarthy (Speaker of the House)

McCarthy has been waiting to be Speaker of the House for more than a decade and will not give that up to run against Trump, who was instrumental in winning McCarthy the speakership. McCarthy has a long career set up for him in Congress, and Republicans need him to keep his spot.

• Liz Cheney (former Rep. from Wyoming)

Liz Cheney can’t win, and everybody knows it. If she couldn’t come close in her Wyoming GOP primary as a high-ranking House Republican, she has zero chance of winning the nomination.